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The Dead Sea - A Sea That Is Sadly "living" Up To Its Name
By Haitham Sabbah, Fri Dec 9th

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A couple of weeks ago, the news headlines mentioned lightly thenew "Israel, Arabs agreement to saveDead Sea:"

Jordan , Israel and the Palestinian Authority saidthey had agreed terms for a feasibility studyon transferring water from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea, to savethe world's lowest sea from vanishing.

The two-year study, costing 15 million dollars,will investigate the social and environmentalimpact of conveying large quantities of water through a200-kilometer (120-mile) conduit between the two seas.

Following the feasibility study, the project will takearound five years to complete. But the project in itssecond phase involves building power generation and waterdesalination plants to supply electricity and fresh water toJordan, Israel and the Palestine.

Ok, so what's in it? If I'm not mistaken, this means thefollowing:

1. If the feasibility study starts now, that is June 2005, itwill finish June 2007. 2. If the feasibilitystudy say go, and being optimistic the project starts byJan 2008. 3. Trusting that funds will not bedisturbed like the 'Disi Project Funds'(Arabic), phase one should be ready by 2013. 4. No news whenphase two is suppose to finish!

Will the Dead Sea "live" until then?

Well, when the Ein Gedi Spa opened in 1986 to pampervisitors with massages, mud wraps and therapeutic swims,customers walked just a few steps from the main building to taketheir salty dip in the Dead Sea. Nineteen years later,the water level has dropped so drastically that theshoreline is three-quarters of a mile away. A redtractor hauls customers to the spa's beach and back in coveredwagons. See full article by John WardAnderson, in Washington Post Foreign Service.

The water level of the Dead Sea has declined over 21 m from 1930to 1997, and alone 12 m in the last 20 years. In lessthan a century the water level has fallen by approximately 25m. In the past few years, the water level fell at arate of 80-100 cm per year, with the average rate of fallaccelerating in recent years. As a result, the Dead Seasurface area has shrunk by about 30% in the last 20years.[source]

At the current rate, the more shallow southern partof the sea will be gone less than 50 years.

Several projects have been proposed over the years to save theDead Sea, and the one that now seems the most likely to becarried out is that of a pipeline from the Red Sea to the DeadSea. This plan is not new. Already in the 19th century, when theactual level of the Dead Sea was first measured, plans weredeveloped to use the height difference to create a hydroelectricpower plant. Most plans focused on a canal from the Mediterranean to the DeadSea.

Even though these plans to save the Dead Sea have been wellreceived by many, there are also drawbacks. What will happen ifwater from the Dead Sea and from the Red Sea are mixed? Thereare studies that suggest that the Dead Sea would turn white, oreven pink. Withdrawing large bodies of water from the Gulf ofAqaba might seriously upset and possibly destroy its alreadyfragile ecosystem. Ecological investigations have only justbegun.

And what about the archaeology of the region? One aspect thathas received virtually no attention so far is the impact thatthe construction of a pipeline, let alone a canal, would have onthe Wadi Arabah and especially the hill country between thebottom and the eastern plateau, which is an area with a richhistory covering every period from Palaeolithic to late Islamic.Hundreds of sites have been found here in a number of surveys,and since the area has still only been partly surveyed, hundredsof sites are still waiting to be discovered. Therefore,regardless of what route the pipeline/canal will take, it isbound to affect tens, maybe hundreds of archaeological sites,many of which have only been recorded in surveys, but neverextensively investigated.

Even if the project takes place, there is maybe a 20- to 30-yearlifetime for this project because that is how long it will takefor the Dead Sea to regain its natural level. On the other hand,when you consider the vast capital costs, the economic andpolitical sense is not clear. Also, because the desalinatedwater will need to be pumped long distances and to a highaltitude to get where it is needed, the cost of the water willbe very high.

Countries with less than 500 cubic metres of water per year aredescribed

as suffering from scarcity of water. The UKhas around 1,500 cubic metres per person, Israel 340, Jordan140, and the Palestinian Authority only 70.

The Red Sea-Dead Sea canal is expected to generate 850million cubic metres of drinkable water, almost the existingannual water use of Jordan, which would be divided betweenJordan, Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

The Role of Scenarios in the Dead Sea Project:

The role of scenarios is to create a number of realisticscenarios for possible futures of the Dead Sea Basin. Thesescenarios will reflect trajectories or future directions thatdiffer from one another and therefore offer leaders and policymakers in the region the opportunity to test present strategiesfor water management and perhaps develop new ones. The timeframe of the scenarios is from 2005 to 2025. Three drivingforces were assumed to have an order of magnitude impacts on thesystem. These were:

1. The level of Cooperation between the three riparian countries;

2. The role agriculture will play in the future; and

3. The type of investment in water related projects

The following are brief summaries of the realistic scenarios. Itis worth mentioning here that the scenarios were the result ofsynthesis and deliberations first amongst the project partnersand second of information collected in the Focus group Meetingsand from participation in relevant conferences and workshops.

Scenario I Business as Usual

The Middle East in 2025 is reminiscent of the present daysituation. This is because after 20 years, very little haschanged. The levels of cooperation between Israelis and thePalestinians remains low, plagued by cycles of violence followedby periods of quiet but not real peace. The lack of progressbetween Israel and the Palestinians affects the levels ofcooperation between Jordanians and Israelis as well. Jordan’srelationship with Israel remains low key and secretive, whileJordan’s relationship with the Palestinians is cold anddistrustful. The lack of cooperation creates short-term thinkingon all sides. Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinians compete forwater resources, through over pumping and ill-conceived waterprojects. Agriculture continues to be protected and receivewater at below market prices compounding water stress in theregion. The economies in the area remain sluggish, though theworld economy is bouncing back after years of slow growth. Thelevel of the Dead Sea is back on the rise, however, theenvironmental consequences of the ”Red-Dead Conduit” have yet tobe fully digested. The gypsum precipitation caused by the mixingof sulfate rich Red Sea water with the calcium rich Dead Seawater has whitened the surface of the Dead Sea and is having animpact on the climate in the basin. The Sea of Galilee continuesto be endangered by over pumping and the Jordan River is nothingmore than an open sewage canal.

Scenario II A Water Stressed Out Middle East

While a Water Stressed Out Middle East may look similar toScenario I, this scenario describes a Middle East in the year2025 that is ready to explode. Cooperation remains low as in theprevious scenario, and the role of agriculture remains central,however, without the large addition of desalinated water fromthe ”Red-Dead Conduit”, water stress in the region is reachingunsustainable levels. Something has to give way. Israel, Jordan,and Palestine seem to be heading for an outright conflict overwater in the region. The countries must either increase thelevel of cooperation allowing for a more efficient and equitableuse of the water resources or vastly reduce the role ofagriculture in the region in order to avoid the oncomingconflict. The level of the Dead Sea is at an all time low, andstill sinking. Large ecological systems around the shores of theDead Sea have been destroyed. The continued violence in theMiddle East, combined with sinkholes and a quickly recedingshoreline, has decimated tourism in the area. A lack of waterfor irrigation has turned the farming villages on the Israeliand Jordanian shores of the Dead Sea into ghost towns. Jericho,the oldest city in the world, has the lowest per capita waterconsumption in the in the world.

Scenario III A Low Impact Middle East

A Low Impact Middle East would require a break from presenttrends. In order to reach sustainability by the year 2025, theleadership in the Middle East, as well as the United States,found a way to break the cycle of violence, which had plaguedthe area for the last 100 years. New levels of cooperationenabled the countries in the region to work together to findsolutions to water stress and environmental problems. Thecountries looked for low impact solutions in order to create newwater supplies while at the same time recognizing the need tolimit agriculture to a more sustainable dimension. Low impactwater systems such as rainwater harvesting, wastewaterrecycling, and efficient water delivery systems created newwater without major adverse environmental effects. It wasnecessary to build a large number of desalination plants inorder to provide water to the growing population. However, thedecreased size of irrigated agriculture, climate appropriatecrops, and the improvement of irrigation systems in the regionmeant that treated wastewater could serve as the major sourcefor water for farming. The level of the Dead Sea is slowlyrising. The decrease in the use of fresh water from the Sea ofGalilee for Israel and Jordan has allowed the Jordan River toonce again flow with clean water into the Dead Sea. Ecologicalsystems that had been suffering for years in the Sea of Galilee,the Jordan River, and the Dead Sea are slowly recovering.Tourism in the area is flourishing, providing a boost to theeconomies of all three nations. Ten years ago, in the year 2015,the leadership in Israel, Palestine, and the United Statesbrokered a Geneva-like peace agreement entailing a total Israeliwithdrawal to the recognized borders along the ”Green Line” (’67Armistice Line) except for certain areas for which thePalestinians received one to one land compensation. Israelisettlements in the West Bank were evacuated and handed overintact to the new Palestinian state as a goodwill gesture fromIsrael. A number of Palestinian refugees returned to the stateof Palestine. Jerusalem is a divided city with the Old City ofJerusalem under joint Palestinian/Israeli sovereignty. At theWhite House agreement signing ceremony, the United StatesPresident expressed satisfaction at being able to complete thework of previous administrations in the long struggle for apeaceful settlement in the Middle East.

Scenario IV A Supply Managed Middle East

By the year 2025, the riparian nations around the Dead Sea havebegun to feel the fruits of the peace agreement reached 10 yearsearlier. Israel, Palestine, and Jordan are all threeexperiencing better than average growth rates. With strongeconomies, stable political environments, a warm climate, and aproximity to Europe, the area has become attractive tointernational investors. Tourism and agriculture are the twomain destinations of international capital. The Dead Sea Basinhas become a focus for building large hotels and resorts aimedat the European market while all three nations are supplyingmore and more fresh fruits and vegetables to European markets.Water is the key to continued economic progress in the regionand so, large water projects are a priority for both governmentand private investment. The “Peace” Conduit (Red-Dead Conduit)is providing 800 MCM of water annually to the area but with therapid development of the region, the need for water continues togrow. Israel and Palestine are working together to increasetheir water supplies through large desalination projects ofseawater and brackish water, dams in every available Wadi andwastewater recycling. Rapid economic growth, large waterprojects, and the development of large tracts of land foragriculture are changing the face of the region. Pristinedeserts, nature reserves, mountain Wadis, and the Dead Seaitself are being transformed beyond recognition. While thebenefits of peace and development are clear, many are disturbedby the loss of much of the natural beauty and ecologicalsystems. [Source]

About the author:http://sabbah.biz/

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